Quantitative risk assessment using a Japanese hydrogen refueling station model

Although hydrogen refueling stations (HRSs) are becoming widespread across Japan and are essential for the operation of fuel cell vehicles, they present potential hazards. A large number of accidents such as explosions or fires have been reported, rendering it necessary to conduct a number of qualitative and quantitative risk assessments for HRSs. Current safety codes and technical standards related to Japanese HRSs have been established based on the results of a qualitative risk assessment and quantitative effectiveness validation of safety measures over ten years ago. In the last decade, there has been much development in the technologies of the components or facilities used in domestic HRSs and much operational experience as well as knowledge to use hydrogen in HRSs safely have been gained through years of commercial operation. The purpose of the present study is to conduct a quantitative risk assessment (QRA) of the latest HRS model representing Japanese HRSs with the most current information and to identify the most significant scenarios that pose the greatest risks to the physical surroundings in the HRS model. The results of the QRA show that the risk contours of 10^?3 and 10^?4 per year were confined within the HRS boundaries, whereas the risk contours of 10^?5 and 10^?6 per year are still present outside the HRS. Comparing the breakdown of the individual risks (IRs) at the risk ranking points, we conclude that the risk of jet fire demonstrates the highest contribution to the risks at all of the risk ranking points and outside the station. To reduce these risks and confine the risk contour of 10^?6 per year within the HRS boundaries, it is necessary to consider risk mitigation measures for jet fires.     

The perceived risk of the Line 5 Pipeline and spills under ice

Using the psychometric paradigm of risk in conjunction with surveys of the Michigan public (n = 638) and a regional planning organization (n = 65), we examine the perceived risk and concerns associated with underwater oil pipelines, the Enbridge Line 5 pipeline in particular, and oil spills under ice. The fate of Line 5 is heavily debated in Michigan, specifically the portion that traverses the Straits of Mackinac, which can be ice-covered for months. Scant literature examines how individuals perceive the risk associated with Line 5, its alternatives, or potential spills in open water or under ice. Here we identify considerable concern regarding both the pipeline and the potential for spills under ice on behalf of the public, and increased concern about spills under ice on behalf of the planning organization. Organization members' concerns are significantly predicted by beliefs about the difficulty in remediating spills, however not by beliefs about spills' likelihood, difficulty in detection, noticeability, or consequences. Our results identify the need to better examine and communicate the risks associated with underwater pipelines and spills, both in open water and under ice, as well as options for remediating oil captured under ice. Furthermore, we recommend the adoption of decision-making and risk governance processes that explicitly expand analysis of the social, economic and environmental tradeoffs of underwater pipelines such as Line 5.     

Does the method for Military Utility Assessment of Future Technologies provide utility?

The Military Utility Assessment of Future Technologies (MUAFT) method was developed as a cost-efficient alternative to methods such as NATO's Disruptive Technology Assessment Games, to be used as a part of the Swedish Armed Forces' long-term capability development process. The question addressed in this study is whether MUAFT can be considered to have validity in its context and thus if it has potential to be useful to other small to medium size states. The analysis was based on an operationalization of Clark's framework for science and technology intelligence analysis, combined with a military capability centric view of military utility. MUAFT reports from 2012 to 2018 were reviewed in terms of how they satisfy five key criteria. The study shows that MUAFT provides utility, if used by a suitably composed group of experts, who are aware of the method's limitations. The limitations mainly originate from a lack of explicit support for assessing the impact of forces for change, other than technological forces, on military capability development. The expert group serves as the synthesizing bridge between technology forecasts and military utility assessments. Therefore, comprehensive expertise is needed in various military technology specialisations, in the sponsor's military capabilities and in subjects necessary to master in order to assess other influential societal forces for change.     

A Hybrid Virtual Cloud Learning Model during the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic has affected the educational systems worldwide, leading to the near-total closures of schools, universities, and colleges. Universities need to adapt to changes to face this crisis without negatively affecting students’ performance. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is to identify and help solve to critical challenges and factors that influence the e-learning system for Computer Maintenance courses during the COVID-19 pandemic. The paper examines the effect of a hybrid modeling approach that uses Cloud Computing Services (CCS) and Virtual Reality (VR) in a Virtual Cloud Learning Environment (VCLE) system. The VCLE system provides students with various utilities and educational services such as presentation slides/text, data sharing, assignments, quizzes/tests, and chatrooms. In addition, learning through VR enables the students to simulate physical presence, and they respond well to VR environments that are closer to reality as they feel that they are an integral part of the environment. Also, the research presents a rubric assessment that the students can use to reflect on the skills they used during the course. The research findings offer useful suggestions for enabling students to become acquainted with the proposed system’s usage, especially during the COVID-19 pandemic, and for improving student achievement more than the traditional methods of learning.     

Developing social impact assessment guidelines in a pre-existing policy context

Few jurisdictions have translated internationally agreed social impact assessment (SIA) principles into statutory provisions. Governments and regulatory bodies tend to provide developers with high-level frameworks, or require that social impacts be ‘considered’, without specifying how this is to be done. In Australia, this lack of clarity leaves all parties uncertain about requirements for SIA. The New South Wales (NSW) Government’s 2017 release of the SIA guideline for State-significant mining, petroleum and extractive industry development represents an attempt to clarify requirements and provide guidance. In this paper, we describe the process of bringing this guideline to fruition from the perspective of being directly involved in its development, and highlight the challenges involved in integrating leading-practice principles into the state’s pre-existing policy framework. While the guideline represents a significant advance in policy-based SIA guidance, some aspects leave room for improvement. The real test of the guideline’s impact will lie in its influence on SIA practice in NSW, and ultimately in social outcomes for communities affected by resources projects.     

Effectiveness of English local plan SA/SEAs

Fourteen years since the implementation of the European SEA Directive, the effectiveness of the English system of Local Plan sustainability appraisals/strategic environmental assessments (SA/SEAs) is analysed, based on 15 case studies, five interviews, and questionnaires of 11 planners. Substantively, SA/SEA leads to fine-tuning of plan policy wording and a more robust choice of development sites, but to only limited wider influence on the plan. Normatively, there seems to be a direct conflict between the requirement that Local Plans must provide enough housing for ‘objectively assessed need’, and environmental protection. From a pluralist perspective SA/SEA reports are very long, and although the statutory consultees often comment on them, the public do so only infrequently. It is in the transactive dimension that the largest changes have taken place: both consultants and planners have had to do more with less. This does not yet seem to have negatively affected the other effectiveness dimensions, but may not be sustainable over time.     

Reflecting on the preparation of guidelines for strategic environmental assessment (SEA) of nuclear power programmes

In this paper, the ‘guidelines for strategic environmental assessment (SEA) of nuclear power programmes’ by the International Atomic Energy Agency are introduced. This includes a reflection on their preparation process and contents as well as consultation feedback. The preparation process started with two meetings of international nuclear and SEA experts and the creation of a writing team which prepared an initial set of draft guidelines. This was followed by various consultation exercises. The guidelines are organised along an allocation of tasks within a tiered system of energy related policies, plans, programmes and projects. Whilst consultation showed that there was agreement on the approach to most issues, no consensus was present on the extent to which economic and social issues should be fully integrated with environmental considerations. Strong support was given to the way quality review is designed, going beyond focusing on the main SEA reports to cover procedural and participatory aspects next to elements of a comprehensively tiered decision making framework, the ability to influence decisions as well as the quality (expertise and experience) of those involved in conducting the SEA.

Abbreviation: SEA: Strategic Environmental Assessment; EIA: Environmental Impact Assessment; IAEA: International Atomic Energy Agency     

澳大利亚“基于能力本位的评估”模式及对我国高职教育 质量评估的启 示

澳大利亚职业教育在全球享有较高的声誉,这与其坚持严格的"基于能力本位的评估"(competency based assessment, CBA)密不可分。介绍了澳大利亚CBA的内涵特征,并详细描述"准备评估、开发评估工具、开展评估、对评估结果进行评估"的CBA运作过程,关注评估工具的开发和后续常规系统性检查及完善,以期对我国的高等职业教育质量评估起到启示和借鉴作用。     

基于模糊综合评判和层次分析法的中子管故障风险评估

中子管是一种用途广泛的关键部件，然而目前国产中子管的可靠性水平与国外相比还有一定差距，难以满足各行业的使用需求。本文分析了中子管的主要故障模式，采用模糊综合评判和层次分析法对中子管故障进行了多级模糊综合评判，并对中子管故障风险进行了评估。结果表明，中子管总体故障风险水平中等，故障风险前3位的部件为靶、氘氚储存器和加速极，在设计和使用中应重点关注靶释放氦气，靶膜氧化，氘氚储存器吸气剂局部破损，绝缘瓷管破损，加速极离子加速、聚焦不稳定等故障。     

Evaluation of physiological workload assessment methods using heart rate and accelerometry for a smart wearable system

Work metabolism (WM) can be accurately estimated by oxygen consumption (VO₂), which is commonly assessed by heart rate (HR) in field studies. However, the VO₂–HR relationship is influenced by individual capacity and activity characteristics. The purpose of this study was to evaluate three models for estimating WM compared with indirect calorimetry, during simulated work activities. The techniques were: the HR-Flex model; HR branched model, combining HR with hip-worn accelerometers (ACC); and HR?+?arm-leg ACC model, combining HR with wrist- and thigh-worn ACC. Twelve participants performed five simulated work activities and three submaximal tests. The HR?+?arm-leg ACC model had the overall best performance with limits of agreement (LoA) of ?3.94 and 2.00?mL/min/kg, while the HR-Flex model had ?5.01 and 5.36?mL/min/kg and the branched model, ?6.71 and 1.52?mL/min/kg. In conclusion, the HR?+?arm-leg ACC model should, when feasible, be preferred in wearable systems for WM estimation.

Practitioner Summary: Work with high energy demand can impair employees’ health and life quality. Three models were evaluated for estimating work metabolism during simulated tasks. The model combining heart rate, wrist- and thigh-worn accelerometers showed the best accuracy. This is, when feasible, suggested for wearable systems to assess work metabolism.